Vox populi, vox dei

A new record lead on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote for the SNP in a poll commissioned through YouGov - 44%, with Labour on 25%. There will probably be a lot of talk about it, but forget who commissioned it - this was a regular YouGov poll and they are not a company (*cough* Scottish Opinion *cough*) known for giving whatever answer the commissioning body wants. The Weber Shandwick model gives a projection of 58 seats. Obviously that'll be out of date come the next election and its redrawn boundaries, but it's only notional right now anyway.

Playing with the notionality a bit more, although a list voting question wasn't asked, you can make some educated guesses. Looking at which seats resisted the SNP tide in the projector you could give the SNP 1 or 2 Glasgow list seats, probably 2 in the Highlands and West, and maybe 1 in the South. Could all that add up to 65? Why, I think it might.

There has been quite a bounce from Glasgow East (and I look forward to having a shufty at the detailed breakdowns when YouGov publishes them). Labour's invincibility myths are going. Voters collectively can find it easier to make a switch if they feel other voters are changing their minds as well. It's also been relatively consistent. Since Glasgow East the Scotland subsets of the UK-wide Westminster polls have been flattering. Whether all this equates to a landslide in the far-off post-Brown days of 2011 - if we're not independent by then, obviously - remains to be seen, but this will hardly be encouraging news for Labour at a time when they are facing an internal contest to decide the future of their party.