It's the deep breath before the plunge

Before I start properly I should say that I haven't actually been out in Glasgow East since Saturday, where I was one of the battalion of volunteers campaigning for the SNP. Between now and then paid work, a hangover and the kind of housework that only a 20-something male who lives alone can let accumulate have swallowed up my time. All that just makes the final sprint over the finish line a bit more enjoyable.

I've been loathe to predict this by-election, except by exuding the heady and nonspecific optimism that the SNP can win it, might win it, and that even the seat being in contention is a victory in itself. I have a suspicion that even if Labour do narrowly hold they would see the Livingston by-election played out again and lose the seat in the next Scottish elections to a popular, talented and hard-working councillor who has had time to build their profile.

The main reason I have been loathe though is my penchant for numbers. There aren't many of them around.. I saw the ICM poll breakdowns and gave my opinion of them. Labour 5% ahead before a turnout filter seemed at that point to reflect the progress of the campaign, with plenty of time left to convince those few extra undecided voters that would be needed to draw level.

I therefore enjoyed the article by the Times reporter who infiltrated the Labour campaign, even if I don't necessarily approve of the political and journalistic ethics behind it, because it reported two of Labour's numbers: 'some' die-hards, 42% canvass returns supporting Labour to various degrees, and 30% undecided.

Now, no one should ever take canvass returns as read. It's the classic mistake of the first time candidate to see their canvass returns giving them three or four times as many voters as any of the other parties and assume it's in the bag. If a person comes to your door with a very big black and yellow rosette the likelihood is that if you're own colours are a bit more on the red, blue or gold side you might just find that you're too busy to talk to them and you simply aren't recorded at all. Those that do open the door will tend to be polite to the person there and suddenly come over all undecided, or forget to share doubts with the earnest, rosetted figure. These are natural human responses.

A very wobbly 42% support for a heartland seat is dire. In heartland terms we are talking a seat safer for Labour than even Banff & Buchan is for the SNP. I wouldn't divulge sensitive information about contact rates (and some statistics I carefully avoid learning anyway) but run that figure past a nationalist organiser from the NE and you'll see in the disbelief on their face why Labour are so worried here and now. Win or lose Glasgow East - and I think the balance of probabilities is that Labour will lose it - their vote is falling apart. They really should ask themselves why.

(D minus 3)