This map is derived from Ordnance Survey. Crown Copyright. Reproduced without permission. Sue me.
[Edit - following a comment I checked and yes, indeed the new Milngavie & Bishopbriggs seat is a four-way marginal but notionally Conservative as well. Goodbye David Whitton too? These boundary changes really haven't been kind to Labour.]
8 comments:
Interesting stuff Marco. Have you worked out notional majorities yet?
Also, where are the current crop of SNP MSPs likely to contest if these are the seats for 2011?
Someone's been reading How to Lie with Statistics, eh? Huge, sparsely-populated SNP seats and tightly-packed, urban Labour seats give the strong impression that the entire country votes SNP. I don't blame you for presenting it that way, I just thought I should call you on it ;o)
To be honest, I've been looking at election maps for so long that my mind already sort of adjusts for the rural/urban size difference like a geographer looking at an ordnance survey map and processing the contours into a three-dimensional image.
Anyway, this map has the boundaries on, unlike some election maps I could mention.
You missed out the boundary that puts Black Isle ward in North Highland.
Along with other wards that takes nearly 15,000 mainly LibDem votes out of West and puts them in North. Then they get 10,000 votes from SNP voting East.
Considering how the LibDem vote was cut in West last time and how the SNP outpolled the LibDems at council level in West I'd put that yellow. And that's before the JF Munro factor is taken out the equation.
Also a bit cruel on Bruce Crawford. That would stay yellow I would think.
You also neglected to mention the creation of a new North and East Fife seat, but most excitingly in the Kingdom, the removal of Methil from Central Fife, doubling Tricia Marwick's majority to a notional 2,500...
Ach, the North and East Fife seat isn't really very different from the old North East Fife. Similarly, the move of Methil didn't affect the notional incumbent party in either of the seats, so really it's not such a big deal. If Dunfermline West had shifted back notionally to Labour, well, that would have been interesting...
I am though intrigued to know who the aedjit is, given that they are a St Andrews student.
(by the way, Mark, I'm still number crunching on that one)
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